Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.695898 0.810073 0.936676 1.087420 1.261988 1.457765 1.693995
2025-02-02 0.537482 0.697946 0.895550 1.156557 1.492121 1.908983 2.466314
2025-02-09 0.441604 0.619609 0.855676 1.191167 1.655390 2.274940 3.164895
2025-02-16 0.371931 0.555923 0.815133 1.206140 1.780475 2.592835 3.829551
2025-02-23 0.316903 0.500402 0.772817 1.205505 1.874713 2.869891 4.462660
2025-03-02 0.272021 0.451246 0.730118 1.194031 1.945430 3.113969 5.069599
2025-03-09 0.238696 0.414227 0.699327 1.194046 2.029755 3.383391 5.742603
2025-03-16 0.203724 0.368780 0.647842 1.151559 2.036511 3.525296 6.219929
2025-03-23 0.194243 0.365473 0.665798 1.227788 2.251111 4.033216 7.371647
2025-03-30 0.169547 0.331166 0.624876 1.193961 2.266636 4.197952 7.937786
2025-04-06 0.147854 0.299288 0.583959 1.154133 2.264780 4.328767 8.453272
2025-04-13 0.129192 0.270611 0.545204 1.112927 2.254088 4.439822 8.940702
2025-04-20 0.119111 0.258122 0.536865 1.131609 2.364903 4.798848 9.961976
2025-04-27 0.115496 0.258616 0.554616 1.205595 2.596479 5.421338 11.586807
2025-05-04 0.108532 0.250904 0.554365 1.241722 2.753671 5.911229 12.996065
2025-05-11 0.100535 0.239736 0.545248 1.257322 2.868416 6.325076 14.291333
2025-05-18 0.092169 0.226503 0.529821 1.256661 2.946678 6.668625 15.471121
2025-05-25 0.083924 0.212387 0.510583 1.244708 2.997612 6.957318 16.560531
2025-06-01 0.077366 0.201433 0.497235 1.244723 3.075912 7.315035 17.848184
2025-06-08 0.068819 0.184316 0.467101 1.200461 3.043350 7.414412 18.539424
2025-06-15 0.068120 0.187244 0.486120 1.279874 3.321636 8.273364 21.156607
2025-06-22 0.061355 0.173237 0.461106 1.244635 3.309188 8.432283 22.066782
2025-06-29 0.055007 0.159465 0.434969 1.203143 3.275593 8.535141 22.846946